Sunday 28th May, 2017
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2019 Presidential elections and the hurried return of Buhari The Permutations:

2019 Presidential elections and the hurried return of Buhari The Permutations:

  • First Scenario – The Return of Buhari
  • Second Scenario – The Free for All (As the return changes nothing)
  • The role of the Indian Doctor procured by the Cabal

 

President Muhammadu Buhari returned to Nige­ria on Friday, March 10, exactly 50 days after he went to the United Kingdom for medi­cal treatment for an undis­closed ailment.

While he was away, the Inde­pendent Electoral Commission (INEC) announced the date for the 2019 Presidential Elections – in what political analysts de­scribed as the final nail in Bu­hari’s political coffin.

In top political circles these are the scenarios politicians are building their calculations around.

SCENARIO 1: THE RE­TURN OF BUHARI

Muhammadu Buhari has fi­nally returned, in what sources confirm was part of the efforts by the Cabal to remain rel­evant. To ensure that this day came, they had hired an Indi­an doctor who gave the much needed clearance that the Brit­ish doctors were not willing to give.

Game Plan of the Cabal: With Buhari on ground they can continue to govern in his “name” and knowing that there is no time, make all the money they can. Dr. Junaid Moham­med, one of the earliest critics of Buhari, told a national news­paper, the Nigerian Tribune:

“The fact is that this cabal doesn’t represent the interest of Nigeria. If you believe you have a problem, the fact is we expect that you are going to do some­thing about it. Now, Nigeria is trapped because the President of Nigeria hasn’t been Buhari, but one man called Mamman Daura”.

The Cabal also hopes that with Buhari around it can ne­gotiate some positions for itself in the post-Buhari era. Efforts to sell the Chief of Staff Abba Kyari have been rebuffed by the core North and the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), which has had a running battle with Kyari over his alleged in­competence. They had repeat­edly asked Buhari to drop him. The fall back option of Adamu Adamu, the Minister of Edu­cation, didn’t also fly. They are both from the North East that has been over patronized by Buhari.

“But we have a precarious situation, whereby the elected president is infirm, incapaci­tated. He is out of the country physically and he has written a letter to concede all his pow­ers to the vice president who now becomes acting president. If we continue with this situa­tion, perhaps some sanity can be brought back. But the plan of the cabal is to bring back Bu­hari from London. If they bring him back to Nigeria they can do a lot of things in the name of the president and they will be claiming it is the president,” said Junaid Mohammed in the interview with a national news­paper.

Will they be forced to adopt the Kaduna State Governor Nasir El Rufai, with whom they have been having a run­ning battle? El Rufai at the be­ginning of his administration awarded a N1billion furniture contract to Kaduna Furniture company owned by Mamman Daura. The contract was even­tually revoked.

Sources confirmed that Bu­hari was bitter with the political moves behind, most especially that of Adamu Adamu, his trusted aide. Adamu Adamu had single-handedly drawn up the ministerial list, before the Cabal hijacked it.

Buhari can “not function” ef­fectively. So Nigeria will be in a “sleep mode” for the next two years. But any talk of Buhari running for a second term is dead on arrival.

SCENARIO 2

Political analysts are con­vinced that it is a question of time before the President would be forced to give up his position because he is inca­pacitated by health. “He is a vegetable,” said a source. The certainty of their position was what also informed the change of doctor and the decision of the Cabal to send his wife Ai­sha back to Nigeria. She is very close to Bola Tinubu.

If this scenario plays out with Buhari finally “abdicating” power to Yemi Osinbajo, the Vice President, the first major casualty will be Atiku Abuba­kar who since the Ibrahim Babangida transition has been aspiring to be president. The northern Turks are not likely to turn to him on account of his age. The north is not amused that thunder has struck twice – the death of Umaru Yar’Adua and the lame duck Govern­ment of Buhari, after the efforts to install it. The North will not take that chance again said a source.

Atiku, aware of the thinking, has been pushing that Gover­nor Bindow of Adamawa State be considered for the position, if Buhari abdicates power, like it is being speculated. Like Abba Kyari and Adamu Ad­amu, Bindòw is from the north east.

The north is worried about the Yorubas. A top northern politician described the Yor­ubas as “dis-honourable” and untrustworthy, and that the chances of the north forcing a credible candidate on them are slim going by the “characters” they are mentioning.

The Yorubas are looking at the National Deputy Chairman of the APC, Senator Lawan Shaibu, who will do their bid­ding as a perfect candidate.

Not a man to mince words, Mohammed declared: “As I am talking to you, I am con­vinced that President Buhari’s presidency is dead. He may be physically alive and I wish him good health, but as far as gov­ernance is concerned, his presi­dency is dead and nothing can be done to resuscitate it.” This is a position shared by many top northerners.

 

 

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