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Ogbonnaya Onu and the theory of “Dark Horse”

By Malachy Uzendu

The minister of Science and Technology and Innovation, Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, has been touted as President Muhammadu Buhari’s favourite candidate to carry the flag of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), in the 2023 presidential election. Described as the “Dark Horse”, the gentleman scientist is no doubt a quintessential personality of no mean repute.

Even as there were speculations around Buhari’s kitchen cabinet and attendant horse trading, even before the  screening of the party’s presidential aspirants of the All Progressives Congress (APC), with name dropping and consequential realignment of forces, the odds still favour two top contenders from the South-East zone: Dr. Onu and Hon. Chukwuemeka Nwajiuba.

 It is not in any doubt that the name of former President Goodluck Jonathan, who is suspected to have submitted his nomination form through a backdoor means has featured severally, but there is no confirmation of his interest or desire, neither was there any specific steps he took except denying such speculation and dismissing same as the handiwork of people who he did not send. Mr. Ikechukwu Eze, Dr. Goodluck’s spokesman had severally denied that his boss has any interest to contest in the APC presidential primary. Even speculations as to his membership of the party have remained mere conjecture without any concrete evidence. And one wonders if Goodluck will behave like his former predecessor, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, by ignominious dumping the PDP as the former did. Obasanjo had exhibited unprecedented level of ingratitude to a party that dusted him up from prison and made him president. The rest of the story is history, but his complaints against the party, when juxtaposed against his “do-or-die” political mentality, is nothing to compare in infamy.

With recent events in APC, which culminated in the emergence of Alhaji Abdullahi Adamu as the national chairman of the party, nothing is impossible at the ruling party. Nigerians know very well how Adamu, who was drafted into the race at the last minute, not only became the party’s national helmsman but got his opponents to resign en mass before the contest, through forces even more powerful than the speculators had imagined, except the few who had insider’s knowledge of what transoired in the Presidential Villa when the party approached President Buhari over the list of contestants for the chairmanship of the ruling party. What happened in the Villa is a story for another day, but suffice it to state that it was the culmination of the President’s actions on that day that led to the near halt of the APC change of leadership button but in the end, he prevailed.

On the same token, while centrifugal and centripetal forces are aligning and realigning, Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu and Hon. Chukwuemeka Nwajiuba, kept on cropping up among the moderates in APC. Even the President, as I gathered, based on pressures from within the country and from the foreign powers, appear to be dropping his hardliners posture that “nothing will happen; Nigeria is our own”, for a consensus in the interest of the corporate existence of Nigeria and more importantly to rebuild the battered economy and restore security to the nation, seen as the biggest challenges facing the country. And, it is believed that Onu and Nwajiuba holds the greatest prospect for reversing the current ugly trajectory among the aspirants, especially those of them from the southern part of the country and South-East in particular. 

Some sources have hinted that: “It’s because the scales are tipping in Onu’s favour that President Buhari has delayed the signing of the amendment to the Electoral Act, that may have permitted political appointees to be voting delegates at the primaries.” If political appointees do not have voting powers as delegates, then, only the moderates who can exercise reasonable measure of independence of opinion will be available at the party’s national convention as delegates. And if they decide to be themselves, then Dr. Onu is sure to pick the ticket.

Without political appointees, state governors, who have proved to be the albatross to Nigeria’s quest for real political emancipation, will have their negative political influences whittled down and bring about integrity to the political process. Had it been that President Buhari succumbed to pressure and appended signature to the amendment to the Electoral Act, then would have been enmeshed in the same political mire that existed before now.

According to a report in the Leadership Newspaper, “in Nigeria, state governors fund the parties and wield significant control over delegates at election time. Keeping political appointees out of the equation increases governors’ control.  At the same time, however, it makes is easier for the President, who still exercises considerable power of patronage, to whip them in line”. And that is what he has done by withholding assent. 

I totally agree with the Leadership newspaper that “Onu is not the only candidate that could potentially benefit from the exclusion of political appointees in a field that boasts of over 25 APC aspirants, who have submitted nomination forms, but who mostly have weak party structures. Onu carries additional appeal and advantage.

Onu and Nwajiuba are within acceptable age limitations, given that Nigerians appear to be dusted with leadership by gereontocrats and “old cargo” as some may want to describe them. Being in his early 70, Onu enjoys a great advantage. Although Nwajiuba in his 50s has enough experience to take on the challenges, he is said not to have the advantages possessed by Onu especially in a country where there appears to be an increasing demand for experience and pedigree. Onu is a consumate scientist. He is a perfect gentleman. He had been national chairman of the ruling party. He almost took the presidential ticket of the defunct All Peoples Party (APP), but for the activities of the late Sen. Mahmoud Waziri, his party’s chairman then. He had been state governor. He has also been minister in a strategic, though not well-funded ministry of Innovation, Science and Technology. His pedigree as a stickler to time and process is legendary. He is seen by a cross-section of Nigerians as not just a moderate but a perfect gentleman. He surely possesses the qualities of a leader of even one of the advanced economies.

I totally agree with a comment made somewhere that: Buhari is looking for something very spectacular. He is desperate to redeem his dwindling image and cult followership, especially in the wake of the raft of crises facing the country. Rooting for Onu would be a masterstroke for the country’s unity at this time. It would repair Buhari’s damaged image, especially the accusations of nepotism against him. His inability to fix the economy. The level of sleaze going on under his watch. Claims and counter claim of permitting the security apparatus to be infiltrated by some undeniable elements, thus resulting in serious reveal of gains to contain insurgency, terrorism and banditry. And increasingly, the thinking in the country and within the international community that it is both fair and right to look to the South-East.

Critics who challenge Onu for his statements in 2018 to create 400,000 jobs annually through efforts of the ministry and the desire of producing pencils locally, which never materialised provided defence for him that he is a mere servant and never in-charge and so, can’t run faster than his shadow. In an encounter with Dr. Onu recently, I noticed his disappointments over his inability to take a leap on fulfilling the promises. But the gentleman in him did not allow him delve into why the promises failed, rather, he reeled out over 35 sub-sectors it would have impacted had the idea been put in the right track. And he remains optimistic that Nigeria has great opportunity to come out of its present doldrums citing relevant experiences and instances of Japan, Singapore, China, and even Rwanda. According to him, “we have far more talented individuals than these countries. We can place out country on a trajectory of growth and development faster than you had imagined. What is required is the commitment, positive sense of purpose, a sense of fairness and insistence on doing the right things all the time”.

As the APC primary approaches, Nigerians are waiting for the ruling party to overcome its present shadow boxing and do the right thing. And President Buhari holds the ace. He can either make or make the opportunity for the ruling party to progress behind eight years of providing leadership in the country. Pandering to sentiments of tribe or the emotion of patronage of “my people, my people”, will determine the fate of the APC. 

What he must remember is that there is no Nigerian presently alive that could command his cult followership of 2015. And he knows very well that if he stands at another presidential election, he will experience an abysmal fall. Thereofe, it is up to him to manage the transition very well or go down in history as one who summersaulted at the eclipse of his his leadership and he knows the consequences. 

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