CDD Director, Idayat Hassan
By Felix Khanoba
The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) has released its analysis of the key issues likely to shape the electoral process and outcomes when voters head to the polls to elect governors in 28 States and House of Assembly members in 36 states of the federation.
The rigorous 15-page pre-election brief said that voters in 17 states will elect new governors, while incumbents will be on the ballot in the remaining 11 states where the governorship polls will be held.
The summary of the analysis, made available in a statement signed by CDD Director, Idayat Hassan, on Thursday, stressed that the credibility of the process will be critical, but will be challenged by the threat of violence.
CDD also warned that logistical obstacles linked to violence, cash and fuel scarcity would be issues to contend with in the course of the governorship elections. In terms of the perception of the electoral umpire, CDD warned that decreased trust in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) following the delays and technical issues that undermined the polls on 25 February would present challenges.
The report went on to provide insight into six key themes likely to shape the governorship polls, while previewing how the political contests could shape up in 14 states.
According to the report, the six themes, which would shape the elections are identity, insecurity, institutional preparedness, intra and inter-party disputes, voter participation and the question of personalities versus parties.
The report read: “Whilst identity politics is sometimes more visible at the national level, state politics is arguably its main domain with candidate selection requiring careful consideration of one, or a combination of, ethnicity, religion and senatorial district zone depending on the state.” The report also noted that fractious party primaries leading to intra-party disputes and the fact that 60% of contests will not have a sitting governor on the ticket, will also fuel strong inter-party competition in a number of states.
Subsequently, the analysis pointed out that the frustration expressed by Nigerians at the conduct of INEC during the 25 February elections could impact on the polls. “The timely arrival of materials, improved functionality of technology and quick action against electoral officials caught engaged in malpractice will be critical in countering suggestions that INEC is subject to the whims and caprices of some state governments.”
Consequently, CDD drew attention to the challenge, which would likely be posed by violence, and election-specific disruptions, which it stressed portends dangers in terms of INEC’s ability to conduct credible elections. According to the elite think tank, if the challenges posed by insecurity are not mitigated, there could be a likelihood of inconclusive results and the need for supplementary elections.
It said: “Rivers, Lagos, Kano, Kaduna and Sokoto are key states to watch but there will also be closely contested races in Cross River, Delta, Enugu and Zamfara, whilst Adamawa could see the election of Nigeria’s first female governor. The southeast geo-political zone represents the best chance for the Labour Party to build on the gains made during the 25 February polls.
“Our analysis enables us to make some predictions on how the elections will unfold. Closely contested races will likely increase election-related violence; INEC staff will be targets of intimidation and co-option from politically aligned actors; with efforts to manipulate voting processes most likely to target voter suppression in strongholds of political opponents through ballot box snatching and the destruction of election materials.”
CDD projected that based on the most recent off-cycle governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun, turnout for the March 18 governorship polls could be higher than the 27% recorded for the general election. The frontline democracy and public policy think tank however noted that there could be significant variation between states and geopolitical zones with the competitiveness of the race and insecurity risks being defining factors.
CDD similarly called for caution to be exercised in reading too much into presidential performance in a state when seeking to ascertain the credibility of the governorship outcome. It said: “Our analysis of the National Assembly results shows important variation in who voters cast ballots for across the three races. This is especially key as misinformation and disinformation that amplifies divisive identity rhetoric at the state level will continue to be a feature of the electoral environment.”
Based on this rigorous analysis, which draws on an in-depth look at the results of the 25 February elections and reflects on the history of state level contests, CDD made six projections for the 18 March governorship and state house of assembly races:
“An intensification of political competition in more localised races, increases the likelihood of violence with states such as Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Rivers, Sokoto and Zamfara most at-risk.
” Misinformation and disinformation that amplifies divisive identity rhetoric at the state level will continue to be a feature of the electoral environment, with the expected challenge of governing after the contentious polls.
“INEC staff will not only be challenged by popular perceptions of their poor performance during presidential polls but will be the targets of intimidation and co-option from politically aligned actors.
“With the deployment of BVAS, efforts to manipulate election processes are most likely to target voter suppression in strongholds of political opponents than overvoting in known areas of support. We expect to see destruction of ballot papers, the hijacking of BVAS machines and violence to push voter suppression.
“Based on the most recent off-cycle governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun, turnout could be higher than in the general election but there will be significant variation between states and geopolitical zones with the competitiveness of the race and insecurity risks being defining factors.
“Vote trading is likely to be more pronounced than in the 25 February election, given the localised nature of the races, the prevailing economic hardship and the compliance of the Central Bank to the Supreme Court judgment, which held that old naira notes remain legal tender until the end of 2023.
“Finally, most parties and online commentary has made the mistake of expecting similar results to the presidential results of 25 February. Those ‘projections’ have erroneously forgotten to consider the senate and house of representatives’ results, which did not always go along the same line as the presidential outcome. As a result, an inflated expectation might enable political actors call for the delegitimization of the process, policies and eventual winners – with the uncertainty of what this might represent for the democratic process. “
