By Ben Nwosu & Ndu Nwokolo
Barring the last-minute suspension of Nigeria’s housing and population census, scheduled to start on 3rd May and end on 7th May 2023, the country would have had a published figure of its demographics. Despite an expenditure of 200 billion Naira out of the budgeted 800 billion Naira for the exercise, that suspension relieved anxieties about the census. Many doubted the possibility of generating reliable and acceptable census data from the preparation for that exercise. Centrally, it is argued that the laws governing census are limited and deserve a review. Similarly, the systems of the National Population Commission (NPC) responsible for the Nigerian census have not been subjected to pre-census independent multi-stakeholder audits and integrity tests. The audits and integrity tests of the systems and other elements related to the census are crucial because the census and its figures in Nigeria have historically been a source of acrimony.
Census is a source of tension because it is the basis of political and economic decision-making, especially value allocation. Decisions about constituency demarcation for political representation, revenue allocation, planning for taxation, creation of states, creation of local government areas, and other aspects of the distribution of public goods are determined by census figures. The nature of the Nigerian state as one that depends mostly on the proceeds of one major product distributed by the central government amidst parasitic political elites makes it even more complex. The efforts of major political actors to get a disproportionate share of social goods for themselves make them contest or negotiate inflated numbers for their ethnic groups or political constituency so that more resources are made available to these areas, not necessarily for the public good but for the diversion of elites who are chiefly obligated to themselves and their cronies. Consequently, head and household counts are usually characterized by conflicting claims and tensions. The 1962/63 censuses were believed to be part of the remote factors that led to the crises which ended Nigeria’s first civil rule in 1966. As we approach another census of persons and households, the value of figures remains highly political, and the process for generating those figures still begs for greater openness. In our highly divided, low-trust society, it is engagement with the census process to improve it and enhance the acceptability of its outcome that could mitigate the acrimonious disagreements that trail census results. Hence, in this edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly, we explore the census processes and points of critical engagements to reduce post-census tensions.
* Historical Context of Census in Nigeria
History shows that the first census was conducted in 1866, followed by Censuses of 1871, 1881, 1891, and 1901. However, all these earlier censuses were restricted to Lagos Colony and its environs. The 1871 census marked the beginning of the census as a ten-yearly government project. Following the amalgamation of the Lagos Colony and the Southern Protectorate in 1906, the 1911 census extended to some parts of the Southern Protectorate. These censuses did not cover the entire country.
The 1952/1953 Population Census was Nigeria’s first modern national census. However, it was not conducted in the same period in the country. This enumeration strategy of staggered counting made the comparability of data between one region and another difficult. The next, the 1962 population census, covered the whole country, but the results were not acceptable to the regions because of high politicization. The government’s refusal to accept the population census in 1962 prompted the 1963 population census, whose results were a negotiated compromise rather than proper enumeration.
The 1973 Census result was not published because of deliberate falsification of the census figures for political and or ethnic advantages. Another national census took place in 1991.
After fifteen years, a Population and Housing Census took place for the first time in Nigeria in 2006. It is claimed that this exercise utilized GPS and Satellite Imagery for its processes. Also, machine-readable forms were used to record information from respondents.
Nonetheless, the 2006 census results did not go without contestations. Indeed, those who kept quiet in Nigeria’s post-independence censuses are merely resigned to indifference rather than conceding the census outcome as it is usually subject to political wheeling and dealing.
Overall, the country’s population figures have a certain north-south divide. Northern cultural context and vast territory offer a basis to expect a dense population. At the same time, southern proximity to the coast is a basis for expecting that movement towards the direction of opportunities should necessarily lead to greater numbers in the region. Incidentally, after more than a century of conducting censuses, Nigeria has yet to resolve these contrasting claims.
Nigeria has prepared to undertake another census in 2023 when issues of politics, religion, ethnicity, and demographics are major sources of fission. There is fierce competition for livelihood resources which leads groups to invade others. In some instances, some invite their ethnic kin beyond Nigerian boundaries to join in ethnic fights, settle where people have been displaced, and alter the demographics in favour of their ethnic kin groups. This pattern is part of the fallouts of the conflicts in North Central Nigeria and Kaduna State. Besides, many groups in Nigeria’s North East, North West, and North Central regions are displaced from their normal habitations or place of origin due to conflicts and terrorism. Many Nigerians are still in IDP camps, and some are refugees in Chad, Niger and Cameroon due to conflicts. It is a concern as to how these persons and households could be recorded in the census.
These factors render the forthcoming census very sensitive. Therefore how they would be handled during the census require openness to achieve acceptance. It would be more contentious if the census methodology is not explained, popularized, tested, audited, and accepted. One way to contribute to a credible census is by engaging with the process across the different dimensions that would support the objectivity of its results and acceptance.
* What Do We Engage About The 2023 Census And How?
As the census draws near, enlightened stakeholders have crucial questions to engage about its essential elements, comprising the following:
Legal framework: so far, the broad national law on the Nigerian census is contained in section 213 of the Constitution. This section places the conduct of the federal census under the National Population Commission, whose task is within the exclusive list of the Constitution. It is important to explore how to handle legal issues not elaborately covered in the Constitution but would be part of the census operations. Legal coverage of issues like outright refusal to be counted, data security and forceful occupation of communities by persons different from their normal inhabitants may not be clear from the Constitution. Such nuanced issues could be integrated into regular operational manuals of the National Population Commission. Before the census, stakeholders should read and raise possible concerns from such regulatory documents.
Technology: the National Population Commission has expressed interest in applying a technology-driven data capture and analysis approach in the 2023 census. Based on the principles of using technology for a census, it is important to inquire whether the preferred devices supported by dependable software and network system have been procured for the census. Secondly, based on the principles of technology use, it should be inquired whether the selected machine is suitable to perform the task, whether it can carry the number of users and data that would pass through it or is prone to errors. It should also be explored whether the technology adopted guarantees the safety of private information and security from hackers; whether it is stable enough to withstand collapse during the census process.
Also of interest is whether the manpower for the census has been trained for the competent use of the devices. Thirdly, stakeholder engagement should find out whether the instruments and their network systems have been pretested to avoid stories of glitches during the census.
The census should also be engaged in terms of its methodology for counting persons uprooted from their normal habitations by conflicts and terrorism. In a February 2023 tracking of displacement by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), the North East of Nigeria was found to still host 2,375,846 Internally Displaced Persons affecting 483,507 households. In Benue State, at least 1.597 million IDPs are scattered across eight camps and host communities. Round 11 of the Data Tracking Matrix for IDPs by IOM assessments identified 1,190,293 IDPs in 191,688 households across the eight states covered in North Central and North West Nigeria. While the NPC suggests that it would count the IDPs, how they would carry out a realistic count of their households bears further explanation. Similarly, how they would penetrate strongholds of secessionist agitators in the South East for the census is a point of challenge that needs to be discussed. As there is common distrust about data generated from Nigerian censuses due to political interference, the NPC should explain how its system would check the inflation of figures during or after enumeration.
Engagement with NPC should aim at eliciting information regarding how they coordinate with other government agencies like the Nigeria Immigration Service to track foreigners and ensure that they are not enumerated as Nigerian citizens. Also, how they coordinate with agencies like the National Orientation Agency and the media to promote awareness about the census and prepare citizens for the process. The extent of partnership with community leaders and civil society organizations for mass mobilization and sensitization about the census should be determined.
Universities and research centres, media and civil society organizations should constitute the main contexts of these engagements.
* Policy Recommendations
There is a need to review the legal framework around the conduct of census and explore how to handle legal issues not elaborately covered in the Constitution.
Adopting modern technology in the census process is necessary to guarantee efficiency, suitability and data privacy.
The NPC should address how its system would check the inflation of figures during or after enumeration.
The NPC should aim to elicit information regarding how they coordinate with other government agencies for tracking, mobilization and sensitization.
* Conclusion
Census figures are not just numbers. They are numbers with political significance and are deployed in the contest for spaces in a state that prioritizes distributing resources that mostly benefit the ruling group. Given the political significance of demographic figures, the process of its generation is also politicized. Hence, census processes are distrusted while its figures are contested. As Nigeria prepares for head and household count in 2023, stakeholder engagement around the legal framework, technological deployment, issues of displaced population and refugeehood from conflicts and terrorism, issues of political interference and the extent of inter-agency collaboration and how they bear on the census, all need to be subjected to open public conversation to achieve a credible and acceptable census.
(Dr. Ben Nwosu is Associate Consultant at Nextier SPD, and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Development Studies, University of Nigeria; while Dr. Ndu Nwokolo is Managing Partner and Chief Executive at Nextier and Honorary Fellow at the School of Government and Society at the University of Birmingham, UK.)
