…Large proportion of undecided voters
According to the latest poll published by Africa Polling Institute (API), Dr. Asue Ighodalo, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is leading in the race for the Edo State governorship election.
The poll, conducted from August 12th to 16th, 2024, surveyed Edo State citizens and voters to capture their perceptions and intentions ahead of the upcoming election.
The poll revealed that 72% of respondents have made up their minds on which candidate to vote for, while 28% remain undecided. Examining the voting intentions of respondents who have chosen a candidate, approximately 60% support Dr. Asue Ighodalo, 28% favor Sen. Monday Okpebholo of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and 12% back Barr. Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party (LP).
The survey also highlighted that 94% of respondents are registered voters with permanent voters’ cards (PVCs), and 83% have given considerable thought to the election. However, confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is mixed, with 47% lacking confidence in its ability to conduct a free and fair election, 34% having some confidence, and 19% expressing complete confidence. Notably, 80% of respondents feel safe going out to vote on election day.
Regarding the factors influencing voter decisions, 57% cited the candidate’s competence, followed by personality (42%), experience and track record (36%), political party (34%), and party manifesto (16%).
The API report concludes by stating that while Dr. Ighodalo is currently polling ahead of other candidates in the 2024 Edo Governorship Election; they believe it will eventually end up a two-horse race between PDP and APC; and a lot depends on which candidate is able to swing the 28% of undecided voters in their favour.
Polling Methodology
This state-wide poll involved telephone interviews with 2,687 randomly selected voters across Edo State’s 18 Local Government Areas (LGAs).
All interviews were conducted in five major languages spoken in Edo State: English, Pidgin English, Benin, Esan, and Etsako languages. All LGAs were proportionately represented in the poll, and the average time per completed interview was 8 minutes. Post-stratification gender and senatorial district weights were applied to the data to make it more representative, to allow for more accurate population totals of estimates, and to reduce non-response bias. The weights assigned were in proportion to the 2006 population figures. Given the sample size, there is 95% confidence that the results are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 5%.
About API
Africa Polling Institute (API) is an independent, non-profit research think tank that conducts opinion polls and social research to inform public policy and advocacy in sub-Saharan Africa.
Professor Bell Ihua is the Executive Director, Africa Polling Institute
