As Nigeria prepares for the 2027 general elections, concerns are mounting over the growing diversion of police personnel to political elites and private individuals, a trend analysts warn could undermine public security and electoral integrity.
A new policy report by the Nextier Social Policy and Development (SPD) initiative reveals that although the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) has an estimated strength of about 371,800 officers for a population exceeding 236 million, more than 100,000 officers are reportedly assigned to protect politicians and other high-profile individuals.
Critics say this has created a dual-tier security system where the powerful enjoy personalised protection while ordinary citizens face rising risks from kidnapping, banditry, and violent crime.
The report was authored by Dr. Chibuike Njoku, Associate Consultant at Nextier and Senior Research Fellow at multiple institutions in Nigeria and abroad, and Dr. Ndu Nwokolo, Managing Partner at Nextier and Honorary Fellow at the University of Birmingham’s School of Government.
According to the report, the imbalance becomes especially pronounced during election periods. While police deployments are officially meant to secure voters, electoral officials, and polling infrastructure, in practice they often favour senior politicians and office holders.
Many communities, polling units, and collation centres are left inadequately protected, increasing the risks of voter intimidation, suppression, and election-related violence, particularly in politically competitive areas.
The authors warn that the pattern reflects deeper problems in Nigeria’s security governance. During past elections, heavy police presence around political figures and private residences has contrasted sharply with weak security at known electoral flashpoints. Beyond elections, the concentration of police resources around elites further strains an already overstretched force battling insurgency, communal violence, organised crime, and urban insecurity.
Looking ahead to 2027, the report identifies several risks likely to intensify deployment distortions. These include heightened elite competition and intra-party conflicts, a shrinking civic space for journalists and civil society, limited police capacity, and persistent public perceptions of police partiality. Together, these factors could erode public trust, depress voter turnout, and increase the likelihood of violence in flashpoint areas.
The report also highlights weak oversight and accountability as a major concern. Without transparent deployment criteria and effective sanctions for abuse, analysts warn that the misuse of police resources during elections may continue unchecked.
To address these challenges, the policy brief calls for urgent reforms. Key recommendations include the establishment of clear and publicly available election-security deployment guidelines, strict limits on police escorts for political office holders, stronger inter-agency coordination under the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and enhanced oversight involving the National Human Rights Commission, civil society, and election observers. The authors also urge mandatory pre-election training for police officers and unhindered media access to monitor election security operations.
“The issue is not reducing election security, but rebalancing it,” the report notes, arguing that police deployments should prioritise voters, electoral officials, and democratic processes rather than political privilege.
The brief concludes that decisions taken ahead of the 2027 elections will be critical in determining whether election security strengthens democratic participation or continues to undermine public confidence and safety.
