By Felix Khanoba
Ahead of the 2027 General Elections, civil society organisation, Yiaga Africa, has released findings from its Round One nationwide survey on national voting intentions.
The report, titled “Who Will Vote?”, was presented during a policy roundtable on voting intentions ahead of the 2027 polls held on Thursday in Abuja.
Presenting the findings, Executive Director of Yiaga Africa, Samson Itodo, said the survey showed that voters in the North-West and North-East geopolitical zones recorded the highest level of interest in participating in the 2027 elections when compared to their counterparts in the southern regions.
“One of the things that we found is that in the northwest and the northeast of the country, the strongest level of voting intention exists. So in the northwest, about 67% and in the northeast, 45% demonstrate high interest to vote.
“But if you look at the regions where we record low enthusiasm to vote, it’s in the southern part of the country. And that’s the southeast at 25% and then south-south at 29%. So in the northwest and the northeast, there’s higher intention to vote,” he said.
According to Itodo, the survey revealed that 77 per cent of respondents nationwide expressed willingness to vote in the 2027 elections.
“Of those that were sampled, 77% of respondents indicated that they have intentions to vote in the 2027 elections.
“However, 42% of them feared violence or insecurity. So when you look at voting intention, it’s quite high. 77% we consider it quite high.
“But the bigger challenge is how do we ensure that this 77% actually turn up in February next year. That’s the bigger and the bigger stats. Because as of today, our turnout for general elections is perhaps somewhere around 25%,” he said.
Itodo further stated that the security situation, quality of candidates and prevailing economic conditions were identified as the top factors that would influence voting choices in 2027.
“Therefore, the whole candidate nomination process needs to be democratic, and it needs to ensure that it throws up candidates that have high quality, else it might destroy voting,” he said.
He added that the survey showed that 45 per cent of Nigerians expressed confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), though trust levels varied across regions.
“That’s what the survey says. But when you look at the regional distribution, which part of Nigeria is the level of distrust in INEC higher? We actually found that in the south-south and in the south-eastern part of the country. The trust level for INEC in these other regions is quite high compared to these two other regions,” he said.
While acknowledging the support of the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) for funding the survey, Itodo disclosed that data from Round Two of the survey, conducted in collaboration with NOI Polls, would be released in March.
Based on the findings, Yiaga Africa recommended the establishment of a robust security framework for the conduct of the 2027 elections.
The organisation also urged INEC to strengthen the integrity and accuracy of the voter register through timely revalidation of registration records, while calling on the National Assembly to conclude the passage of the electoral bill by January 2026 to ensure legal certainty ahead of the polls.
Also speaking at the event, INEC Commissioner in charge of voter education, Mohammed Haruna, commended Yiaga Africa for the survey, describing it as a right step in right direction.
He reaffirmed the commitment of the electoral body to ensuring a conducive voting environment.
“For our part, INEC firmly committed to creating an environment in which every eligible Nigerian can exercise their right to vote freely, safely, and with confidence that their vote will count.
“Since the last general election, the Commission has continued to renew its processes strengthening the use of technology, enhance transparency, and engage stakeholders at all levels of the electoral committee. We recognize, however, that building trust and increasing participation requires sustained collaboration and consistent effort.
“I wish to emphasize that boosting voter turnout requires credible political competition, responsible political behavior, effective voter education, improved security, and socio-economic policies that restore security and democracy as a vehicle for positive change.
“Civil society organizations, research institutions, political parties, the media, security agencies, and government institutions all have indispensable roles to play. This policy roundtable therefore provides a valuable platform for constructive dialogue and shared learning,” he said.
The well-attended event drew key stakeholders, including representatives from ECOWAS, the Police, civil society organisations, Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC), among others.
