A non-governmental group, Grassroots Mobilisation Initiative (GMI) has identified divisions among opposition parties and the distribution of votes across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones as key factors that could influence the outcome of the 2027 presidential election.
The group, which is campaigning for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election, argued that the opposition’s failure to form a united national coalition could undermine its ability to challenge the incumbent.
GMI National Coordinator, Samaila Musa, stated this in a political assessment of the emerging electoral landscape, citing Tinubu’s alliances across different parts of the country as a potential advantage for the ruling party.
The group examined the political dynamics in the South-West, South-East, North-West, North-East and North-Central regions, highlighting the potential impact of competition among opposition figures, including former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso.
Musa said: “Following a nationwide evaluation of political dynamics across all six geopolitical zones, GMI highlights that political realities on the ground coupled with a divided opposition make an opposition victory mathematically impossible.
“Political reality shows that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar stands no chance of winning a single state in the Southern region. The South East, which previously served as a major voting bloc for Atiku, is now firmly under the influence of Peter Obi and South East Governors, who predominantly support President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s second-term bid, completely wiping out former opposition strongholds in the zone.
Meanwhile, the entire South West remains locked down for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
“North-West Vote Split: In the North West, Rabiu Kwankwaso is set to capture substantial votes in Kano and Jigawa, as well as a reasonable outing in Katsina. Rather than forming a united front, these votes will be siphoned directly from Atiku’s traditional base, severely diluting the opposition’s voting power.
“North-East Battleground: The North East will be another key battleground featuring a split vote between sitting Vice President Kashim Shettima, the region’s Governors (almost all of whom belong to the ruling party), and Atiku Abubakar.
“Vote splits in the North Central regions will definitely prevent the opposition from emerging as the winner of the election.
“History has proven that Northern votes alone cannot produce a President. Former President Muhammadu Buhari attempted this strategy multiple times without success; it was only after forging a solid alliance with Bola Ahmed Tinubu and securing Southern support that he won in 2015. Without Southern states, any presidential bid remains dead on arrival.”
The GMI coordinator also expressed support for the participation of all candidates in the election, including Obi and Kwankwaso, saying their presence would allow Nigerians to evaluate their programmes and political records.
As part of its mobilisation strategy, the group disclosed that it had activated its grassroots structures across the country’s 774 local government areas to support Tinubu’s re-election campaign.
Musa maintained that the president’s political alliances and economic reform agenda would be central to the group’s projections for the 2027 contest.
He added, “The political writing on the wall is plain for all to see. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is set to secure a decisive victory in the coming election, not only because of his courageous economic governance and structural reforms, but because the electoral map heavily favors a truly national leader.
“While the opposition continues to squabble over divided territories—with Atiku losing his grip on the South East and forfeiting key Northern strongholds to Kwankwaso and Kashim Shettima, President Tinubu’s nationwide political coalition remains united, formidable, and expanding.
“We welcome every candidate to stay in the race and let the voters judge everyone on their merits. However, arithmetic and history do not lie: a candidate who cannot win a single state in the South and whose Northern base is fractured cannot govern Nigeria. President Tinubu has delivered on reforms, restored economic confidence, and built the broadest national consensus. Victory is mathematically and politically assured.”
The group’s projections represent its assessment of the evolving political landscape ahead of the 2027 election. The eventual outcome will depend on several factors, including party nominations, campaign strategies, voter turnout and the choices Nigerians make at the polls.
