The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has dialed down its expectations for Nigeria’s economic performance in 2025, projecting a 3.0% growth rate in its latest World Economic Outlook released Tuesday.
That’s lower than its earlier estimate of 3.2% (October 2024) — and miles behind the Nigerian government’s ambitious 4.6% growth forecast in the 2025 budget.
For context, Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.84% in Q4 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), driven largely by a modest rebound in the non-oil sector, agriculture, and improved performance in services. But the IMF isn’t convinced the momentum is sustainable. In fact, it expects growth to slow further to 2.7% in 2026, citing weak oil prices and sluggish recovery trends.
The IMF acknowledges some of the big reforms Nigeria has rolled out — scrapping fuel subsidies, FX market liberalization, and halting central bank financing of fiscal deficits. But it warns the benefits haven’t quite reached everyday Nigerians.
With inflation still biting, poverty on the rise, and food insecurity persisting, the global lender says the macroeconomic environment might be stabilizing, but “gains have yet to benefit all Nigerians.”
On the bright side, Nigeria is still expected to outperform South Africa (1.0% growth in 2025) and the regional average (3.8%). Nairametrics.
