By Chesa Chesa
Security experts have warned that the growing alliance between jihadist groups and other non-state armed actors across the Sahel is worsening insecurity in the region and exposing the weaknesses of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).
In a policy analysis titled “Between Alliance of Terror Groups and Alliance of Sahel States,” Dr. Chukwuma Okoli and Dr. Ndu Nwokolo of the Nextier group said recent coordinated attacks in Mali demonstrate how extremist organisations are increasingly forming strategic partnerships to expand their influence and territorial control across the Sahel.
Dr. Chukwuma Okoli is a visiting Lead, Research and Policy at Nextier and a Lecturer at the Political Science Department at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria; while Dr. Ndu Nwokolo is a Managing Partner at Nextier and a Reader (Associate Professor) at the Institute for Peace, Security and Development Studies, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria.
The analysts pointed to the April 25-26, 2026 attacks in Mali carried out jointly by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Front de libération de l’Azawad (FLA), a Tuareg separatist movement, as evidence of the growing convergence between jihadist groups and local armed movements.
According to them, the attacks validate projections contained in Nextier’s 2026 Security and Conflict Outlook, which highlighted the danger posed by alliances among terrorists, insurgents, bandits and other non-state armed groups operating across the Sahel.
They explained that the alliance between JNIM and FLA was driven by overlapping political ambitions, with JNIM seeking to establish an Islamic state and the FLA pursuing the independence of Azawad in northern Mali.
The experts argued that the April attacks were not isolated incidents but part of a broader regional trend in which extremist groups are achieving greater success through coordinated operations and alliance formation.
The report contrasted the growing effectiveness of these armed alliances with the declining influence of the Alliance of Sahel States, a security bloc formed in 2023 by Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger following military takeovers in the three countries.
According to the analysts, the AES, established as a collective defence mechanism against terrorism and external threats, has struggled to contain jihadist insurgency despite creating a 5,000-member anti-terror force in April 2025.
Okoli and Nwokolo attributed the AES’ inability to effectively counter insurgency to two major factors: weakened regional cooperation and governance failures.
They argued that the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) weakened regional security coordination at a time when collective action was most needed.
The analysts also said prolonged military rule, suppression of political opposition and human rights abuses in the AES countries have deepened legitimacy crises and created conditions exploited by extremist groups.
The report warned that the weakening of state authority in Mali and the recent setbacks suffered by Russian mercenaries could enable jihadist groups to rapidly expand into more territories across the Sahel.
To address the growing threat, the analysts recommended stronger border security among neighbouring countries, renewed diplomatic engagement between ECOWAS, the African Union and AES member states, as well as enhanced bilateral security cooperation involving regional powers such as Nigeria and Chad.
They also called for increased international support, warning that the crisis in the Central Sahel could destabilise the wider region if left unchecked.
In addition, the report urged humanitarian organisations to strengthen interventions in vulnerable communities as part of efforts to reduce local support for extremist groups.
The analysts concluded that the April 2026 attacks in Mali expose both the increasing sophistication of alliances among terror groups and the fragility of existing regional security structures in the Sahel.
