By Stella Omona | Abuja
The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has challenged claims by the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC) that the country’s persistent electricity shortfall is primarily the result of inadequate transmission capacity, arguing instead that official data from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) shows the major bottleneck lies with power generation.
The rebuttal follows a THISDAY newspaper report published on July 28, 2026, in which APGC reportedly claimed that more than 2,500 megawatts (MW) of electricity generated daily are stranded because the national grid can wheel only about 4,500MW despite an installed generation capacity of over 15,500MW.
In a detailed statement, TCN said NERC’s First Quarter 2026 report contradicts that narrative, insisting that the figures cited by the regulator point overwhelmingly to low generation availability rather than transmission limitations.
According to TCN, NERC’s report shows that the average generation capacity declared available by power plants during the first quarter of 2026 was 4,457.96MW—almost the same figure APGC attributed to the grid’s wheeling limit.
The company argued that the figure represents capacity made available by the generating companies themselves for dispatch, not a transmission restriction imposed by the grid.
TCN also disputed APGC’s claim of over 15,500MW installed generation capacity, noting that NERC’s report lists installed capacity for the 28 grid-connected plants at 13,625MW.
The transmission company further maintained that Nigeria’s transmission network currently has a verified wheeling capacity of 8,700MW, significantly higher than the 4,500MW cited in the report.
It said the grid had already demonstrated this capability by successfully transmitting a record peak load of 5,801.84MW on March 4, 2025, as well as other peaks above 5,500MW without incident.
According to TCN, sustained investments in transformers, substations and transmission lines have steadily expanded the grid’s capacity.
The company disclosed that between January 2024 and November 2025, it commissioned 82 new power transformers, adding about 8,500MVA to the transmission network.
It also highlighted recent upgrades, including the commissioning of the Ihovbor–Benin and Ihovbor–Ajaokuta 330kV transmission lines, which it said added more than 600MW of wheeling capacity to the Benin transmission corridor.
TCN argued that NERC’s own Plant Availability Factor (PAF) data further supports its position.
The report, it said, indicates that the average availability of generation plants stood at just 32.72 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, meaning more than two-thirds of installed generation capacity was unavailable for dispatch because of gas shortages, maintenance and mechanical faults.
Several plants, including Alaoji, Rivers, Ibom Power, Sapele Steam, Trans Amadi and Omotosho, recorded extremely low availability levels during the period.
The transmission company also cited NERC’s findings that reduced water levels and maintenance outages significantly lowered hydropower output at Kainji, Jebba, Shiroro and Dadin-Kowa.
On the issue of stranded power, TCN said NERC’s reported grid load factor of 92.26 per cent indicates that nearly all available generation was successfully dispatched during the quarter.
It estimated that only about 345MW of declared available capacity remained undispatched, far below the 2,500MW to 4,000MW stranded power figure cited by APGC.
The company further noted that five generation plants achieved a 100 per cent load factor during the period, meaning every megawatt they declared available was evacuated through the transmission network.
TCN also rejected suggestions that transmission losses accounted for between 1,200MW and 1,300MW of wasted electricity daily.
It said NERC’s audited Transmission Loss Factor for the first quarter of 2026 stood at 7.96 per cent, translating to an average loss of about 327MW, while adding that much of the financial penalties referenced in the report related to market settlement mechanisms rather than physical transmission losses.
Addressing the partial system collapse of January 27, 2026, TCN said NERC’s preliminary findings attributed the incident to inadequate reactive power support required to maintain voltage stability, rather than failure of transmission infrastructure.
The company, however, acknowledged responsibility for the separate total system collapse of January 23, 2026, which it said resulted from a busbar separation at the Sapele Transmission Station and had since been investigated.
TCN also argued that the reported ₦2.28 trillion capacity payment shortfall across the electricity market is more closely linked to poor collections and remittances by electricity distribution companies than to transmission constraints.
According to the company, NERC’s report showed Distribution Companies recorded Aggregate Technical, Commercial and Collection losses of 37.44 per cent during the first quarter, significantly above regulatory targets.
While acknowledging that Nigeria’s power sector continues to face serious operational challenges, TCN maintained that available regulatory data does not support claims that transmission infrastructure is the primary cause of the country’s electricity deficit.
The company reaffirmed its commitment to expanding the national grid through continued investments in transmission infrastructure, grid automation and network security, while urging stakeholders to base public discourse on official regulatory data.
TCN said closer collaboration among the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO), NERC, generating companies, distribution companies and other market participants remains essential to improving the reliability and sustainability of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry.
