By Chukwuma Okoli & Ndu Nwokolo
The conduct of periodic elections is critical for the consolidation of democracy in any society. The selection of leaders by the people through competitive elections has been identified as the central procedure for democracy (Huntington, 1991). Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has successfully conducted seven general elections in addition to other off-cycle, supplementary and rerun elections. As a nation, Nigeria has derived significant benefits from the conduct of elections but has also incurred economic and political costs from the conduct of these elections. Beyond the close to twenty-four years of unbroken civil rule and the opportunity offered to the citizens to exercise their franchise, elections have provided an opportunity for the electoral management body (EMB) to improve the quality of the electoral process. Data from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) showed that Nigeria’s score on clean elections had increased slightly from less than 0.50 pre-1999 to 0.53 in 2020. This is an indication of improvement in the quality of elections.
What is more, elections have opened up the political space for opposition political parties to contest and win political offices at various levels. For instance, the 2015 Nigeria general elections were remarkable because, for the first time, Nigeria experienced peaceful political power alternation in which the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) took over power from the incumbent People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The 2015 alternation in power built the confidence of many in the capacity of the electoral system to reflect the will of the people and, perhaps, sustain democracy and development. Despite the benefits, Nigeria has suffered some political costs associated with elections. These political costs include the threats to national cohesion and integration arising from divisive politics and violence deployed by some political actors in pursuit of their political interests. Economically, the 2023 election imposed direct and indirect costs on individuals, households, firms, and the country as a whole. Generally, the extent of costs and benefits associated with any particular election is connected to the extent of the integrity of the election. With a focus on the 2023 elections, this edition of Nextier Policy Weekly reflects on the political economy of elections in Nigeria and suggests ways to harness the benefits while mitigating the costs associated with the conduct of elections.
- Political Economy of Nigeria’s 2023 Elections
The 2023 election has remarkable political and economic benefits as well as costs for Nigeria. Politically, the EMB was able to enhance the electoral process by developing and deploying cutting-edge election technologies – the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) – in the conduct of the elections. The introduction of these election technologies was able to inspire confidence in voters, particularly in the pre-election phase. Moreover, people who turned eighteen years within the last four years, to participate in the electoral process by registering and voting in the elections. In all, an additional 9,518,188 million people were added to the voter register, with young people aged 18-34 years accounting for 76.5 per cent of the newly registered voters. The election also allowed young people to take advantage of the age reduction bill passed in 2018 to contest election into public offices. In Kwara State, a young girl of 26 years who contested under the APC won a seat in the state House of Assembly. Further, unlike the previous elections that were split between two major parties, the 2023 election turned out to be a four-horse race that saw a contest by four major political parties – APC, PDP, Labour Party (LP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). The transition of Nigeria’s electoral contest from the traditional two-horse race to a four-horse race signifies an expansion of the political space and availability of alternatives from which the voters could choose. This has been made possible by the periodic conduct of elections.
Despite the political benefits, the 2023 elections threw up certain political costs. First is the diminished trust in the electoral system by some voters due to challenges connected to the application of the much-vaunted election technologies. There were reports that voting was delayed in some polling units because of challenges with the BVAS. INEC has also been criticised in some quarters for delays in uploading some election results on the IReV. These technological challenges raised suspicion in some quarters as to the integrity of the process and even triggered protests in some locations. Secondly, the reported incidences of voter suppression and violence threatened national cohesion and integration in Nigeria. In some parts of the country, there were allegations that some persons threatened voters who they suspected were not willing to vote for a particular party.
Elections also impose economic costs on the nation. INEC budgeted ₦305 billion for the conduct of the 2023 election, with the cost per voter estimated at $5.39. The 2023 budget is a 61.37% increase over the ₦189.2 billion spent for conducting the 2019 general election. The high number of litigations associated with elections in Nigeria also imposes an economic cost on contestants, political parties, and the country in general. As of January 2023, INEC was joined in 791 pre-election suits. The Commission also budgeted over ₦3 billion for the prosecution of law suits arising from the conduct of the 2023 elections. Further, the postponement of the 2023 gubernatorial and state house of assembly elections had serious economic costs on the nation. The cost of postponement during the 2019 elections was $2.23 billion. This figure is expected to be higher in 2023 due to rising inflation. Elections also impact the capital market because of uncertainties, which sometimes lower investors’ appetite and may cause them to exit the market pending the outcome of elections. The capital market was affected negatively in the 2015 and 2019 elections when equities fell by 17.36% and 14.6%, respectively, because of uncertainties that surrounded the elections. The 2023 general election showed an interesting scenario in which the participation of foreign investors in the capital market slowed, but the domestic investors’ confidence increased as they filled the investment gap left by foreign investors. Bloomberg explained that the Nigerian bonds posted some best gains as the APC presidential candidate took an early lead in the presidential result tally. The dynamics of the capital market suggest that transition elections and elections that bring alternation in power tend to impact more negatively on the capital market because of uncertainty over the policy direction of the new leadership. Despite the economic costs of the election, a successful transition to civilian administration will boost investor confidence and Nigeria’s economic relations with the international community.
- Way Forward: Mitigating the Costs and Enhancing the Benefits
INEC should deepen transparency in the electoral system: INEC must enhance transparency in the electoral system by ensuring the proper application of election technologies deployed for the conduct of elections. The use of BVAS should be sustained, while delays in uploading election results on the IReV should be avoided. Where there are technical hitches, INEC must communicate with all stakeholders immediately. Ward-level collation of results should be digitalised to reduce miscalculation or intentional manipulation of results at the ward level. Efforts must be made to improve the logistics management of INEC by partnering with reputable logistic firms to reduce lapses associated with election day logistics.
INEC should review observer reports and implement reforms: reports of credible election observers on the conduct of the 2023 elections should be reviewed by INEC to identify gaps in the conduct of elections. Reforms should partner with think tanks and reputable civil society organisations to design and implement reforms to address the gaps identified in the electoral processes.
Act on pre-election risk assessment reports: INEC and other election stakeholders, such as the security agencies, must always review pre-election risk assessments conducted by reputable organisations and act on the findings of such reports to preempt factors which impose political and economic costs on elections.
Judiciary must demonstrate independence in treating election matters: The judiciary must demonstrate independence in addressing all election matters in line with extant laws. This will build confidence in the judiciary and ensure that voters and other political actors do not take the law into their hands.
Strengthen the capacity of the security agencies: There is a need to strengthen the capacity of the security agencies to provide security for voters, contestants, election staff and materials. This will go a long way in addressing voter suppression and intimidation.
- Policy Recommendations
- INEC must enhance transparency in the electoral system by ensuring the proper application of election technologies deployed for elections.
- INEC should review observer reports and implement reforms.
- : INEC and other election stakeholders, such as the security agencies, must always review pre-election risk assessments conducted by reputable organisations and act on the findings.
- The judiciary must demonstrate independence in addressing all election matters in line with extant laws.
- There is a need to strengthen the capacity of the security agencies to provide security for voters, contestants, election staff and materials.
- Conclusion
Elections are a distinguishing feature of democracy. However, there are economic and political costs and benefits associated with elections. The more credible the elections, the more the benefits and vice versa. Nigeria’s 2023 elections imposed significant political and economic costs because of challenges associated with election technologies, voter suppression and violence undermining voters’ confidence in the system. The postponement of the governorship election also imposed severe economic costs on the nation. However, the opportunity provided new voters, particularly young people, to vote and contest elections. The political space expansion that saw the electoral contest’s transition from the traditional two-horse race to a four-horse race is some of the political benefits of the elections. All hands must be on deck to consolidate Nigeria’s democracy. Thus, there is a need to review the gaps identified in the 2023 elections to enhance the gains and mitigate the costs of future elections in Nigeria.
(Dr. Chukwuma Okoli is Associate Consultant at Nextier and a Lecturer at the Department of Political Science at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria; while Dr. Ndu Nwokolo is Partner at Nextier and Honorary Research at the School of Government and Society, University of Birmingham, UK.)
