By Kenneth Maduagwu
About 100 million rural dwellers in Nigeria face the risk of violence. Unprecedented spread of violence is reshaping communal living, agro-economic and cultural activities. Piles of disfigured bodies, life-threatening injuries, forced displacements, and attendant humanitarian needs are the scenes of many Nigerian rural communities. Mass burials have joined the list of community events such as marriage ceremonies, religious rituals and cultural festivals. The reasons for this anomaly have a common denominator: rural violence. The spread of violence in communities is uneven and perpetrated by a mix of different actors, motivations and consequences. This trend is an impending nightmare for urban dwellers who, for a long time, have appeared to be buffered by relative stability and structure in city centres. This edition of the Nextier SPD Policy Weekly examines the spread of rural violence and its consequences for Nigeria.
Mirroring the Insufferable Violence
Some manifestations of rural violence are tied to specific locations. In parts of the northwest, northcentral and gateway states in the southeast, south-south and southwest, cyclical farmer-herder clashes are unending. However, the frequency of attacks is higher in the northcentral and northwestern states. According to the Nextier Violent Conflict Database, 303 cases of farmer-herder clashes led to 1,472 deaths between 2011 and 2023 across Nigeria. The northcentral region has more cases than other regions combined. The frequency of incidents isundergirded by poor natural resource management, climate change, and armed conflicts in the Lake Chad Basin,increasing the migratory proclivities of cattle herders. Also, legal frameworks in some states to stall open grazing, politicisation of the conflict, woes of farming communities and a growing resentment of pastoralists and their alleged criminal activities are serious concerns. In Bauchi State, the police once advised farmers to harvest crops early to avoid farmer-herder clashes. The result has made many rural communities unlivable and food insecure, and its dwellers are prone to migration and armed fighting.
Resource struggles between farmers and herders are foreshadowed by banditry. Many of the recorded cases of armed banditry happen in regions also with farmer-herder hotspots. Some experts often link the two phenomena. Others argue that one precedes the other and, in some cases, are distinct. Irrespective of the conceptual debate, many communities face these issues on a large scale. Banditry has made northwest Nigeria’s conflict theatre, significantly shifting the attention from the over twelve years of jihadist terrorism rocking the northeast. Relentlessly, episodes of banditry are also prevalent in the northcentral regions. The spread of banditry is steady and increasingly menacing for millions of Nigerian residents, particularly those living in rural areas. Banditry is Nigeria’s most reoccurring violent conflict in the last three years, according to the Nextier Violent Conflict Database. Fatal figures from the northwest, northcentral and northeast zones are depressing and point to the decreasing value of life. Its frequency suggests that mitigation efforts are not entirely helpful, and more people face the risks of gruesome deaths and harsh humanitarian conditions.
Age-long communal clashes over landed resources are also realities in some rural communities. While some communal conflicts are frozen, others appear to be accentuated or taken over by more significant conflicts. In worse cases, they reinforce each other and place community residents at more risk of violence and fatalities. Communal conflicts in Nigeria are often inter- or intra-community feuds fiercely fought from generation to generation. Interpersonal disputes over lands and boundaries that morph into full-scale clashes are notable triggers of communal wars. Consequentially, houses, farmlands, sexual violence and gruesome deaths are recorded in the wake of such incidents. About 298 people have died from 62 cases of communal violence in Nigeria within the last three years, according to the Nextier Violent Conflict Database.
In the northeast, jihadist terrorists are notorious for seizing villages and preventing government and humanitarian access to a vast population of rural dwellers. In some instances, residents are taxed and subjected to inhumane treatment. According to a northeast study by Nextier, conflict-impacted communities are developing coping mechanisms to counteract the effects of terrorism. However, unending terrorist attacks are still challenging. In Borno, a notorious jihadist terrorism hotspot, Boko Haram slit the throats of 40 farmers. About 7.9 million people require urgent humanitarian assistance in the three most impacted northeast states (Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe), according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA).
Generally, communities in peripheral locations, interstate borders, and ungoverned spaces face these risks. In the BwariArea Council of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, kidnapping gangs from neighbouring Kaduna and Niger states often raid border communities. Some villages may not have lingering cases of armed conflicts. However, their geographical position and absence of local governance make them vulnerable to such attacks. Therefore, the concept of rural violence in such locations is underpinned by their geographical position and vulnerability to external aggression.
Beyond the Violence: Life in Rural Nigeria
Rural Nigeria has distinct features from the urban areas. Over 100 million Nigerians live in rural areas. This figure is half the country’s population, where about 133 million people are multi-dimensionally poor. The spread of deprivations nationwide is not even, but high socio-economic deficiencies exist. According to the National Bureau of Statistics press release in November 2022, rural poverty in Nigeria stood at 72 per cent. Poverty manifests as educational, financial, nutritional, medical, housing, hygienic and energydeprivations. The limited availability of basic infrastructure accentuates rural poverty. These realities reduce economic viability and accessible opportunities for millions of rural dwellers.
The spread of poverty often happens alongside violence and ecological stressors such as flooding, irregular rainfalls, droughts and erosion. Rural communities have limited infrastructure and limited awareness to cope with the impact of climate change. Hence, they are prone to its harsh realities. The slippery slope is portrayed by reduced crop yield and erosion of farmlands, leading to food insecurity and malnutrition. Displacements are also a leading cause of food insecurity, given that the inability to access farms reduces agricultural activities. Also, displacements result in loss of livelihoods and reliance on humanitarian support and resources available in host communities where displaced people seek refuge. With many rural communities predominantly agro-based, this significantly strains income and living standards in the affected areas.
The Allure of the Urban World
Urban centres are not El Dorados but markedly different from the rural areas. In Nigeria and some other developing countries, basic infrastructure is a generic problem. Nonetheless, availability differs between rural and urban habitats. In some instances, differences are noted on the state level, especially in states where there are relatively big cities. The availability of basic infrastructure in urban centres improves the standard of living and predisposes dwellers to better economic opportunities and wages. In terms of wages, there is a rural-urban wage gap, mainly because skilled urban workers have a variety of employment options, as opposed to predominantly unskilled rural workers whose employment options are often limited to agriculture.
Urban centres have more government presence, which is reassuring. Security dialogues in Nigeria often cast lights on the country’s ungoverned spaces as playing fields for non-state armed groups and breeding grounds for terrorism. Urban centres enjoy more government presence because they playhost to government institutions and are arguably more economically viable than rural areas. Security agencies are also often headquartered in urban centres. Furthermore, gentrification is likely to occur in urban areas due to increasedincome levels and quality of life. In Insecurity and Rural-Urban Migration, Nextier posits that urban areas keep growing at the expense of rural areas, thereby exacerbating the migration of able-bodied men and women to live and work in towns and cities.
Rural areas hardly have these characteristics. The spread of armed conflicts in Nigeria has created security formations in rural locations. Some of the often isolated security bases have come under heavy attacks and losses by terror groups. More than 400 inmates went missing after terrorists raided a correctional facility in the Kuje area of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja. Kuje is on the outskirts of Abuja, Nigeria’s seat of power. Also, some military bases in Kaduna State and security checkpoints in southeast Nigeria have been fatally attacked by gunmen. Therefore, the urban areas are comparatively safer, although not untouched by pockets of criminality.
The Migration Challenge
The harsh realities in rural Nigeria and the allure of urban centres are causes of migration. First, urban migration experts often consider the pay gaps between both areas as migration push factors. But in Nigeria’s current reality, other factors are more prevalent, especially for war-torn communities, where its dwellers are fleeing active violent conflicts andhumanitarian tragedies. The susceptibility of rural areas to violence and the ever-decreasing access to basic amenities predisposes its dwellers, particularly youths, to urban migration. Therefore, migration here is not necessarily a result of wage gaps but rural residents pulling on their survival instincts in the face of continued armed conflict and gross humanitarian needs.
Unplanned migration of rural dwellers into urban areas ushers them into new challenges, different from the woes they turned their backs on in their communities. Urban centres often pridethemselves in skilled labour, economic viability, relative availability of basic amenities, modern facilities and a consistently increasing cost of living. Nothing prepares urban migrants fleeing violence, humanitarian needs and natural disasters for the urban culture. Hence, there is a skill-to-labourmismatch and housing needs. Rural dwellers lack the skills in demand and cannot afford basic survival needs. City slums expand because they offer low and substandard housing options. Urban congestion as a result of rural-urban migrationalso deepens. This leads to a potential decrease in urban welfare because the available infrastructure was not designed to accommodate the additional population’s needs.
Urban congestion without urban growth stretches the cities thin. But it stretches urban migrants even thinner. The more rural violence and poverty spread and linger, the more its dwellers flock to urban areas in search of safety and assistance. Nigerian big cities face the congestion, urban poverty and crime that comes with it. The allure of urban centres begins to wane. The unchecked spread of violence in rural areas begins to make way in urban areas because security agencies are stretched thin in combat action. Urban centres are no longer safe havens. For instance, FCT-Abuja, Nigeria’s capital, is recording a surge in ransom kidnaps and “one chance” menace, where passengers in transit are held at gunpoint until their personal belongings and monies in banks are collected.
The rural-urban migration and its implications on big cities underscore three critical points. First, rural violence is spreading at an alarming rate, exposing its dwellers to increased poverty and forced rural-urban migration. Second, the inability to stall the spread of rural violence will mean that urban areas, presumably buffered by their geographic position and government presence, are not infallible. Third, the uptick in rural violence mirrors Nigeria’s expanding conflict theatre and a call to action.
Solution Pathways
Addressing Nigeria’s rural push and urban pull requires a holistic diagnosis. Different factors are contributing to the scale of migration. Therefore, there is a need to focus on someactions.
1. Fixing Security and Poverty: There is a need to address rural violence in Nigeria by looking at the conflict drivers. This will help the government to address factors that pose new challenges for communities. Issues such as ungoverned spaces, lack of basic amenities, and income-generating activities stall rural development and,invariably, stability. For instance, the National Boundary Commission, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Mines and Steel, Border Communities Development Agency, Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development, National Council on Climate Change and security organisations all have essential roles in ensuring rural peace and development.
2. Latching onto Untapped Resources: Rural Nigeria possesses many untapped resources or is susceptible to unregulated activities such as illegal oil refineries and mining. The government needs to develop robust and tailored approaches to rural development and governance in Nigeria. This will reduce the vulnerability of rural areas. Leveraging resources in rural areas will open them up to new opportunities, higher income wages for dwellers and availability of basic amenities. Many rural dwellers may not fancy the allure of the urban centres but are left with no choice due to poverty and violence.
3. Making Local Governments Work: Local government administration in Nigeria is faulty, with different state governments managing it at will. There is a need to revive local administration and bring government closer to the people. Local governance gaps predispose rural locations to poor basic amenities, reduced government interventions and state-society discords.
4. Addressing the Challenges of Urban Migrants: Low-income housing plans, healthcare and effective transportation systems in urban areas will cater to the needs of urban migrants and those on minimum wage.
5. Addressing Cyclical Issues: Old conflicts and grievances are manifesting in new forms. Farmer-herder conflicts result in farmland destruction, cattle rustling, village raiding, and bans on open grazing. Secessionist agitations have also become violent. There is a need to address the prolonged conflict drivers in the rural areas.
6. Natural Resource Governance: There is a need to improve natural resource management and governance in Nigeria. Economic pressure, politics, and the impact of climate change are increasing reliance on natural resources. Competition over natural resources isbecoming fiercer and throwing communities into prolonged wars. With many of these struggles happening in rural areas with dependence on land resources, tensions are inevitable. Relevant government agencies must take the lead to engage communities prone to these types of issues proactively.
Conclusion
Nigerians living in urban and rural areas stand at a crossroads where they often face distinct challenges that border on insecurity and economic pressure. There is a need to look at these issues from the prism of how they connect and reinforce one another. Also, rural violence, if unchecked, may mean urban congestion and criminality. The trend of migration is a call to action and an indication of the growing spread of violence and its consequences for Nigeria.
(Kenneth Maduagwu is a Senior Policy and Research Analyst at Nextier)
