The Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI), a pro-democracy and civic-tech think tank, has warned that several parts of Anambra State could erupt in violence ahead of the November 2025 governorship election, identifying Ihiala, Aguata, Awka South, Ogbaru, and Onitsha North and South as the most volatile flashpoints.
KDI, established in 2014, works to strengthen democratic development and good governance across Nigeria and West Africa through research, data-driven advocacy, civic engagement, and electoral accountability.
Presenting its Pre-Election Security Risk Assessment Report in Abuja on Friday, the organisation said the political environment in Anambra was marked by heightened rivalry, voter distrust, and security fragilities that could undermine the credibility of the polls.
The report, which drew from the work of 61 trained long-term monitors deployed across all 21 LGAs of Anambra and neighbouring states, warned that political violence, youth mobilisation for thuggery, unemployment, and weak institutional preparedness remain potent threats.
According to KDI Team Lead, Bukola Idowu, “our assessment shows that Anambra is at high risk of electoral violence unless urgent steps are taken. Distrust in security agencies and INEC, combined with tense political rivalries, increases the possibility of crisis during campaigns and on election day.”
The assessment also highlighted community-level disputes, latent identity-based grievances, and misinformation as additional triggers that could be activated in the charged political atmosphere.
It further noted that women remained vulnerable to intimidation and gender-based violence, while fake news and media bias could distort public trust in the electoral process.
To prevent crisis, KDI recommended stronger pre-election drills by INEC, transparent voter communication, training and monitoring of ad-hoc staff, and rapid-response systems in identified hotspots.
It urged political parties to sign binding peace accords, rein in inflammatory rhetoric, and stop exploiting unemployed youths for violence and vote-buying. The group also called for gender-sensitive monitoring and collaboration with media outlets to combat misinformation.
Commending the report, Convener of the Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room, Y. Z. Ya’u, described it as “an excellent and useful contribution” to election preparedness.
He emphasised that risk assessments were vital for anticipating challenges and developing strategies to prevent violence and logistical failures.
Deputy Executive Director of the Policy and Legal Advocacy Centre (PLAC), Omolara Akinyeye, said the early warning signals identified by KDI would help observers, security agencies, and election officials tighten their plans for a secure and credible election.
Similarly, UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) Block Lead for Government and Stability, William Robinson, said the launch of the assessment was both timely and vital.
He stressed that “by identifying risks and offering practical recommendations, civil society can play a critical role in promoting transparency, reducing violence, and fostering public trust.”
With less than two months to the election, KDI urged all stakeholders, including INEC, security agencies, political parties, and civil society to treat the recommendations as urgent.
It warned that failure to act could leave Anambra vulnerable to violence, voter apathy, and a disputed outcome that would further deepen public mistrust in the democratic process.
