For decades, Nigeria has grappled with a striking paradox. Despite possessing Africa’s largest proven oil reserves and one of the continent’s most significant natural gas deposits, it has struggled to convert its abundant resources into sustained economic prosperity. Crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, regulatory uncertainty and inconsistent corporate governance have repeatedly undermined investor confidence, leaving the country’s petroleum sector operating below its enormous potential.
That challenge is becoming more urgent. As the global energy landscape evolves and investment capital becomes increasingly selective, countries are competing not only on the size of their hydrocarbon reserves but also on the strength of their institutions, the predictability of their policies and the efficiency of their national oil companies.
It is against this backdrop that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, under the leadership of its Group Chief Executive Officer, Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, has embarked on an ambitious reform agenda aimed at repositioning the company as a commercially driven energy enterprise capable of attracting long-term investment and supporting national development.
The scale of that ambition was evident at this year’s NOG Energy Week in Abuja, where Ojulari unveiled an investment roadmap targeting US$30 billion in oil and gas investments by 2027 and US$60 billion by 2030. Achieving those targets will require far more than attracting new capital. It will depend on sustaining improvements in production, infrastructure security, corporate governance and operational efficiency while convincing investors that Nigeria offers a stable and predictable business environment.
The reforms undertaken during the past year suggest that NNPC is beginning to address those fundamentals.
Execution before ambition
One of the most significant indicators of progress has been the improvement in pipeline security.
For years, crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism severely constrained Nigeria’s production capacity, discouraged investment and deprived the country of substantial revenue. Between 2017 and 2021, the nation reportedly lost about ₦4.325 trillion to crude theft and pipeline vandalism, with more than 208 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products lost through over 7,100 incidents.
Reversing that trend required more than policy pronouncements. It demanded stronger surveillance, closer collaboration with security agencies and host communities, and a renewed focus on protecting critical infrastructure.
The results have been encouraging.
NNPC recently recorded 100 per cent availability across its major crude oil pipeline network, an operational milestone that reflects significant progress in securing infrastructure that had long been vulnerable to disruption. While sustaining that performance remains the real test, it demonstrates that long-standing operational challenges can be addressed through disciplined execution.
The company has also advanced strategic infrastructure projects that are critical to Nigeria’s long-term energy ambitions.
The completion of the River Niger crossing on the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) Gas Pipeline Project marked one of the project’s most technically demanding phases. Together with the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3) pipeline, the AKK project is expected to strengthen domestic gas transportation, improve energy supply to industries and support Nigeria’s transition towards a more gas-powered economy.
Operational improvements are equally evident in production figures.
NNPC reported crude oil production of 1.71 million barrels per day, including condensates, the highest level recorded in five years. Daily gas production also rose to 7.5 billion standard cubic feet, reflecting steady growth across Nigeria’s gas value chain.
Several upstream projects have contributed to that momentum, including Madu First Oil, the Akpo West development, the Soku gas optimisation project and the Gbaran Nodal Compression Train. Collectively, these investments demonstrate a renewed emphasis on increasing production while improving the reliability of Nigeria’s upstream operations.
These achievements matter because investment decisions in the energy sector are driven less by promises than by performance. Stable production, secure infrastructure and timely project delivery provide stronger signals to investors than ambitious policy declarations alone.
If operational improvements have provided evidence of progress, NNPC’s financial performance has offered further indication that the company is beginning to function more like a commercially driven energy enterprise.
For the 2025 financial year, NNPC reported ₦60.5 trillion in revenue, ₦5.76 trillion in profit after tax and ₦14.7 trillion in remittances to the Federation Account. While these figures reflect favourable market conditions, they also point to improvements in operational efficiency and financial discipline.
Equally significant was the company’s decision to hold its first-ever Group Earnings Call, where management presented audited financial results to investors, analysts and other stakeholders. For an organisation that spent decades under criticism for opaque operations and limited public disclosure, the move signalled a shift towards the transparency expected of a commercially oriented national oil company.
Transparency is more than a governance principle; it is an investment strategy. Energy investors increasingly assess companies not only on production volumes and profitability but also on the quality of their governance, financial reporting and institutional accountability. By opening its books to the market, NNPC is taking steps to strengthen its credibility with both local and international investors.
Another notable achievement has been the resolution of the long-running OPL 245 dispute, one of the most contentious legal battles in Nigeria’s petroleum industry. The settlement removed a major source of uncertainty surrounding one of the country’s most valuable deep-water assets and demonstrated a willingness to resolve legacy issues that have weighed on investor confidence.
These reforms suggest a broader shift in corporate culture. Rather than focusing solely on production targets, the company is placing greater emphasis on governance, commercial discipline and long-term value creation—qualities that increasingly influence global investment decisions.
Gas as Nigeria’s growth engine
Beyond oil, NNPC’s long-term strategy places natural gas at the centre of Nigeria’s economic transformation.
With one of the largest proven gas reserves in the world, Nigeria has long been described as a gas-rich nation that has struggled to maximise its potential. Limited infrastructure, underinvestment and inconsistent policy implementation have slowed progress despite growing domestic and international demand.
The current reforms seek to change that narrative.
The completion of key infrastructure, including the AKK Gas Pipeline and the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3) pipeline, is expected to improve domestic gas transportation, expand supply to industries and strengthen electricity generation. Reliable gas infrastructure is also critical to reducing energy costs for manufacturers, supporting fertiliser production and encouraging new investments in energy-intensive industries.
NNPC’s Gas Master Plan 2026 reinforces that ambition. The strategy targets daily gas production of 10 billion standard cubic feet by 2027 and 12 billion standard cubic feet by 2030, while supporting plans to attract more than US$60 billion in energy investments over the next decade.
The emphasis on gas reflects broader changes in the global energy market. Although oil will remain central to Nigeria’s economy for years to come, natural gas is increasingly viewed as a transition fuel capable of supporting industrialisation while contributing to lower-carbon energy systems. For Nigeria, expanding gas production offers an opportunity not only to strengthen exports but also to address domestic energy shortages that have constrained economic growth.
Whether these ambitions are realised will depend on sustained investment, timely project execution and policy consistency. Nevertheless, the focus on gas represents an important shift from short-term production targets towards a more diversified and resilient energy strategy.
The road ahead
The progress recorded over the past year suggests that NNPC is moving in a more commercially sustainable direction. Improvements in pipeline security, higher production, stronger financial performance, greater transparency and renewed investment in gas infrastructure provide evidence that reforms are beginning to yield tangible results.
Yet Nigeria’s energy story has often been one of promising beginnings followed by inconsistent execution.
The real test of the current reforms will therefore be sustainability. Attracting US$30 billion in investments by 2027 will require more than ambitious targets. It will demand consistent policy implementation, continued protection of critical infrastructure, regulatory certainty and corporate governance that inspires investor confidence over the long term.
Ultimately, Nigeria’s vast oil and gas resources have never been the country’s greatest challenge. The challenge has been creating institutions capable of converting those resources into sustained economic growth.
If NNPC can maintain the momentum established under Bashir Bayo Ojulari’s leadership, it may not only redefine the future of the national oil company but also strengthen Nigeria’s position as one of Africa’s most attractive destinations for energy investment.
The question is no longer whether Nigeria has the resources to lead Africa’s energy sector.
The more important question is whether it can sustain the reforms needed to unlock that potential.
ONOGWU Muhammed is a graduate of Chemical/Petroleum Technology, a legal practitioner, public policy analyst and public relations expert. He is currently pursuing a Master’s degree in Energy and Oil and Gas. His research and professional interests span energy law, the oil and gas industry, public policy, corporate governance and regulatory affairs, with a particular focus on the legal and policy frameworks shaping Nigeria’s energy sector.
